Impacts Projected to Occur By 2050 

DEVELOPED COAST 

• PROPERTY DAMAGE A 10-year storm in Tisbury may flood up to 437 structures (11%), while a 100-year storm in may flood up to 501 (12%) [CIT. 3]. The ferry terminal and iconic Black Dog Bakery, which raised its floor by a foot, could be at risk. 

• ROAD FLOODING About 8 miles (8%) could flood in the event of a 10-year storm, and an estimated 10 miles (10%) in a 100-year storm event [CIT. 3]. Beach Road and Lagoon Pond Road are particularly vulnerable to heavy storms, flooding and sea level rise, along with the Five Corners intersection. 

• HARBOR AND WATERFRONT DAMAGE Navigation channels are at risk from sea level rise and flooding, and the working side of the harbor is unprotected from northerly storms. At risk is the commercial waterfront and low-lying utilities and services, such as the police station, harbormaster’s office, post office, and wastewater pump station. Tisbury has received CZM funding to develop resiliency management strategies for the Vineyard Haven Harbor shoreline over the next 50 years, including dune and beach nourishment and elevation of roadways. 

NATURAL COAST 

• EROSION The coast of Tisbury is relatively stable, though one section of West Chop has receded almost 400 feet since 1897 — its lighthouse was moved twice in the 1800s. Eastville breakwater may not be long enough to adequately protect the harbor and Beach Road. 

• MARSH LOSS Regular flooding may transition 31 of 43 acres (71%) of high marsh to low marsh or open water. Total marsh (high and low) may decline by 22 acres (47%) [CIT. 2], with impacts to Lake Tashmoo, Lagoon Pond, and the Mink Meadows area. 

• HABITAT CHANGES About 13 of 67 acres (19%) of estuarine beach/tidal flats could be lost to open water [CIT. 2]. Significant risks to fish and shellfish habitat exist in Lagoon Pond, Lake Tashmoo, the Outer Harbor, and off Eastville Beach. 

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