Impacts Projected to Occur By 2050 

DEVELOPED COAST 

• PROPERTY DAMAGE A 10-year storm in Oak Bluffs may flood up to 554 structures (10%), while a 100-year storm may flood up to 797 (15%) [CIT. 3]. The downtown area is at serious risk of flooding. 

• ROAD FLOODING About 11 miles (10%) could flood in a 10-year storm, and an estimated 15 miles (13%) in a 100-year storm [CIT. 3]. Roads in need of short-term infrastructure improvements or elevation include Eastville Avenue and County Road by the hospital, part of Seaview Avenue by Inkwell Beach, and County Road at Tradewinds Road. Sea level rise could inundate most of East Chop Drive, part of Beach Road on Joseph Sylvia State Beach, and areas around Farm and Sengekontacket ponds. 

• HARBOR AND WATERFRONT DAMAGE At risk is Oak Bluffs Harbor and critical infrastructure, including ferry terminals and low-lying utilities. Oak Bluffs has received CZM funding for an engineering study to develop options for protecting shore and coastal infrastructure in the Oak Bluffs Harbor area against existing flood and coastal erosion risks. 

NATURAL COAST 

• EROSION Most of Oak Bluffs may remain relatively stable due to shoreline armoring. Oak Bluffs has 2.6 miles (37%) of armored shoreline, the most of any of the towns except Nantucket (with 3.5 miles of armored shoreline, but only 4%). However, one section of east-facing coast has receded more than 600 feet since the 1800s, with maximum short- and long-term annual rates of 6 and 4 feet, respectively. East Chop bluff erosion remains a concern. 

• MARSH LOSS Regular flooding may transition 46 of 70 acres (66%) of high marsh to low marsh, and 29 acres (38%) may be lost overall [CIT. 2]. 

• HABITAT CHANGES Estuarine beach/tidal flats may increase from about 38 to 68 acres (30%), and estuarine open water may also increase [CIT. 2]. A causeway and herring run between saltwater Lagoon Pond and freshwater Upper Lagoon Pond is vulnerable to saltwater inundation from sea level rise.