Impacts Projected to Occur By 2050 

DEVELOPED COAST 

• PROPERTY DAMAGE A 10-year storm in Chilmark may flood up to 164 structures (6%), while a 100-year storm may flood up to 254 buildings (10%) [CIT. 3]. Menemsha, with the largest shoreline concentration of residents and buildings on Martha’s Vineyard, is particularly vulnerable to inundation from storms and sea level rise. 

• ROAD FLOODING About 12 miles (7%) could flood in a 10-year storm [CIT. 3], and an estimated 18 miles (11%) in a 100-year storm. At risk are Hariph’s Creek Bridge and Chilmark’s connection to other towns via South Road-State Road. 

• HARBOR AND WATERFRONT DAMAGE Menemsha Harbor is vulnerable to sediment deposition and storm surge, posing a risk to rescue boats, fishing vessels, tourism, and public safety. 

NATURAL COAST 

• EROSION The coast near Squibnocket Pond has receded up to 1,000 feet since the 1800s. Beach erosion is expected to continue in pockets on the north side. Broad sections of the south coast have receded 500 feet or more in that time, with maximum erosion rates exceeding 6 feet per year [CIT. 5]. Significant impacts along the entire southern shoreline have affected beaches including Squibnocket and Lucy Vincent. 

• MARSH LOSS Regular flooding may transition about 35 of 170 acres (20%) of high marsh to low marsh, though total marsh area may stay about the same [CIT. 2]. Marsh migration may be possible at Memensha in the near future before marsh is lost to open water. 

• HABITAT CHANGES Estuarine beach/tidal flats will increase from 44 to 64 acres (44%) [CIT. 2].