Impacts Projected to Occur By 2050 

DEVELOPED COAST 

• PROPERTY DAMAGE A 10-year storm may flood up to 39 structures (6%), while a 100-year storm may flood up to 53 structures (8%) [CIT. 3]. At risk are low-lying homes in areas such as Lobsterville and Dogfish Bar, cultural resources, food crops including cranberries, and artesian wells. 

• ROAD FLOODING About 4 miles (9%) of roadway could flood in a 10-year storm, and an estimated 6 miles (13%) could flood in a 100-year storm [CIT. 3]. The single route to Aquinnah over a low-lying bridge at Hariph’s Creek is vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Flooding could also limit access to Moshup Trail, Oxcart Road, Clay Pit Road, Lobsterville, West Basin, and East Pasture Shore Road. 

NATURAL COAST 

• EROSION Sections of coast have receded up to 800 feet since the 1800s. Maximum short- and long-term beach erosion may continue at a rate of 5 feet per year on the south-facing coast [CIT. 5]. Erosion may impact beaches and dunes around Moshup Beach, Philbin Beach, and Squibnocket Pond. 

• MARSH LOSS Regular flooding may transition about 18 of 25 acres (72%) of high marsh to low marsh, and what little marsh exists today (high and low) may actually increase by 3 acres (12%) during this time [CIT. 2]. 

• HABITAT CHANGES Estuarine beach/tidal flats may increase from 22 to 33 acres (54%) [CIT. 2]. Menemsha Pond and Squibnocket Pond, among other places, are vulnerable to storms and sea level rise