What We Face & the Way Forward
We already experience the disastrous impact of climate-driven storms, flooding, warmer ocean temperatures, and erosion on the places where we live, work, and play. Time is running out to take steps that will protect our coast, and the latest data suggests that is not an exaggeration. We must act now.
We expect climate-driven impacts are likely to intensify in the next decade, and accelerate after 2050, unless we adopt sustainable approaches and adaptive, innovative designs. Consider:
Nearly 322 acres (9%) of high marsh in Ipswich may be lost by 2050 [CIT. 2].
More than 1,600 buildings could flood in Salisbury in 2050 in a 10-year storm [CIT. 3].
More than 26 miles of roadway—roughly the distance of a marathon—may flood in Gloucester in 2050 from a 100-year storm [CIT. 3].
This report highlights general trends and possible future outcomes on our diverse North Shore coast. From a regional perspective, it’s worth noting that we may see important differences in our northern and southern tiers that will require targeted approaches.
“Coastal areas are undeniably impacted by the changing climate; however, this evolution also provides an opportunity to transform and reimagine our connection to the coast.”
Impacts such as flooding are generally likely to be greatest in the low-lying natural coastal beaches, marshes, and developed areas of upper North Shore communities. However, the fact that some of these communities (like Ipswich and Salisbury) have large, natural areas with space to adapt makes them more robust and resilient than smaller areas further south. For instance, the coastal pockets south of Gloucester, including Long Beach in Rockport, may face more damage and have less resiliency to impacts because the beach cannot shift inland, downdrift or be nourished by nearby sands.
Clearly, climate-driven change can impact our dis- tinct ocean-facing shorelines in many ways, from intensified wave and storm energy to gradual sea level rise. Here's a closer look:
CRANE BEACH HAS ALREADY LOST 112 ACRES, EQUAL TO 84 FOOTBALL FIELDS [CIT. 4]
Beaches As the oceanfront shoreline continues to recede at Crane Beach and other beaches along the North Shore, we also face increased flood risks to the inland side of these barrier systems, including access to roads, homes, and businesses. Solutions are complex: Dune restoration and nourishment can be effective but costly and not always applicable, while sand supplies could be scarce and limited. We need to add resiliency with nature-based, sustainable techniques, while conducting studies to predict where problems are worsening and what solutions will work. Tough choices must be made about whether and where to allow retreat inland or let nature proceed without interventions.
BY 2050, ALMOST 2,200 ACRES OF HIGH MARSH IN THE GREAT MARSH MAY BE COMPLETELY LOST [CIT. 2]
Salt Marshes The latest data indicates salt marshes may be unable to keep pace with sea-level rise and drown, transforming the coastal landscape and depriving us of a natural, carbon-capturing resource.
Unless we take bold action immediately and over the next two decades, we can likely expect to see daily flooding of most high marsh to the extent that portions of the Great Marsh could be permanently submerged after 2050. Communities need to shift their overall focus from regulation to conservation, including restoring function and accelerating marsh building. We have to remove barriers to natural water flow and apply ditch remediation and other innovative, at-scale techniques to reverse this potentially devastating climate-driven trend.
FLOODING COULD THREATEN MORE THAN 7,500 BUILDINGS IN 2050 [CIT. 3]
Developed Coastlines North Shore communities, leaders, and coastal landowners can no longer postpone climate-facing emergency planning and decision making. We have three choices: a) accept loss, damage, and disruption from intensified storms and increased flood- ing b) implement adaptive design and technologies to remain in place amid threats and/or c) relocate our lives and livelihoods inland, using buyouts, relocations, and other creative strategies to establish thriving safeholds away from the shore.
MOST ARMORED STRUCTURES ARE MORE THAN 50 YEARS OLD AND NEVER REPAIRED [CIT. 6]
Armored Shorelines Coastal structures from sea- walls to revetments and jetties were not designed with climate change in mind, and their inability to protect us from sea level rise and storm surge is increasingly apparent, from overtopped barriers to homes falling into the sea. Not only are these hard barriers damaged by strong storm impacts, but they also cause damage to our coastline, contributing to erosion, exacerbating property damage, and undermining resiliency by pre- venting migration inland. It’s time to assess hundreds of aging armored structures on the North Shore for repair, renewal or redesign.
More than that, we need to move to living shorelines, artificial offshore reefs, and conversion of flood-prone areas to resilient and publicly accessible open space. Sand-starved beaches caused by seawalls and other protective armored structures will need to be nourished for the short-term with expensive sand. This may be increasingly challenging, and communities and residents are likely to face difficult choices in terms of weighing benefits and costs.
ONLY 25% OF OUR COASTAL HABITAT IS PERMANENTLY PROTECTED [CIT. 13]
Coastal Habitats Climate-driven impacts add to cur- rent development, recreational, and pollution pressures on our fisheries and regional habitats, particularly in the Great Marsh, an area of vital ecological significance. Meanwhile, state and federally listed species such as the saltmarsh sparrow are under threat, our migratory shorebirds and waterfowl may lose habitats and nesting places, and fish populations are expected to shift and become unstable due to warmer temperatures. With limited funding, and a traditional focus on infrastructure, options are narrow to protect areas that are critically important to the economy and recreation of coastal communities.
Our natural shorelines are not only valuable in them- selves but also buffer and offer storm protection to critical infrastructure. We must pivot toward opportunities to enhance protections in key areas for natural resource investments with land protections, permitting reforms, leading-edge restoration techniques, and science and education efforts that involve community members, young and old. We need to work with nature and natural processes for more effective solutions.
Regional coordination, future-facing strategies can save our coast
At The Trustees, we see communities engaging in vulnerability planning to assess threats and seeking grants to implement diverse protection strategies, along with conservation groups working to raise awareness and implement resiliency measures. Less visible are the measures being taken by private landowners on the coast who need to adapt to the risks of sea-level rise and other impacts and should be encouraged to work with the public on “green infrastructure” and nature based solutions.
What is clear is that our sum is stronger than our parts, and this report’s findings highlight the need to come together as a region to create at-scale, coordinated strategies and policies built on future conditions and benefits. Communities are taking individual actions and weighing innovation options such as floating roads and offshore reefs, yet the question remains: How do they all fit together? And, is it enough? At the moment, our answer is no.
We ask our conservation partners, local and state officials, community residents, and visitors to:
Protect natural areas along our coast, develop- ing strategies to help these areas keep pace with accelerating sea level rise and storms
Adopt new policies and regulatory pathways and increase funding to bring coastal resiliency and conservation to scale
Support adaptations and sustainable innovations such as living shorelines and green infra- structure that help our coast respond to climate change and contribute to decisions about where to accept change
Collaborate regionwide on innovative models and designs that offer more sustainable solutions for the future
By taking action, we can conserve our coast and adapt to climate impacts over the next several decades, buying time and options for the next generation. We must prepare now with future-thinking scenarios and climate-based evidence to safely and effectively adapt our communities, and our shores, to the dynamic and beautiful natural world around us.